Tonight’s Survivor predictions:

Rupert will be in the doghouse when his ill-advised underground cabin fills with water, but will redeem himself in the immunity challenge. Chapera will suffer their first loss and head to tribal council. If that happens:

What they should do:

The smart move would be to split up Amber and Boston Rob, who have made their alliance a little too obvious. They need Rob and Amber is useless except as eye candy, so send her packing.

What they will do:

Sue is clearly driving everyone crazy and would seem to be the obvious boot.

If Mogo Mogo goes to TC…

What they should do:

The two women should grab Richard by the pixilated blur and split up Colby and Lex, who seem pretty buddy-buddy. Colby hasn’t really been the challenge monster this time around, so they should send him packing.

What they will do:

The predictable path would be voting off the previous winner, which means Hatch. But that would suck.

If Saboga goes to TC…

What they should do:

Rupert and Ethan should team up for their own good, otherwise one of them will be left as the odd man out with Jerri and Jenna. But that would only get them a tie vote, which everyone wants to avoid. If Rupert continues to go nutty, they should probably cut him loose.

What they will do:

They’ll stick to the plan and Ethan will have to be content with the first million he won.